Real Estate Market Update: First Quarter 2010

With the close of the 1st quarter we can now get a more accurate picture of where certain parts of the market might be heading. Construction numbers continue to show strength for the quarter, edging up a combined 10.83%. The outlook remains positive as strong numbers continue to come in from all counties that we cover. With the sun setting of the home buyer tax credit, the activity that our tax dollars have been paying for finally showed up — all three counties reported impressive double digit gains since February. However, foreclosures ticked up slightly in March and finalized trustee sales closed out the quarter at their highest levels on record.

Buyer Urgency Kicks In – Sales Rocket in March

With the expiration of the tax credit on the horizon buyers flocked to the market pushing property sales to their highest levels in eight months. However, for the quarter, sales were down 15% overall which explains the government’s hesitation to extend the tax credit again. The one thing that can be said about the effects of the tax credit is though it may have fueled an increase in overall volume it does not appear that the credit was as effective as to alter seasonal trends that we are used to seeing.

We expect sales volume to fall slightly leading up to the summer as the remainder of those who are under contract close on their homes and those in play that are only after the credit drop out. However, buyers who come to the market after the credit has expired are probably in a better position than those competing for homes leading up to the expiration.

Here is a look at how the markets are doing in your area

Overall Monthly Comparison

Monthly Breakdown (MAR 2010)

Top Zip Code for Sales

Permitting Closes Out Quarter Up 10.83%

Permitting continues to show strength in all three markets, ticking up an average of 10.83% for the quarter and 11.05% for the month. Totals coming in so far for April remain stable at these levels and contractors out there can expect a fairly strong level of activity leading into the summer. Home building and residential permitting (additions/remodels/etc) continue to drive the market. We expect that the gap in year over year changes will probably begin to level off as we approach the summer. This would show several months of stability in the market.

Overall monthly comparison:

Overall Quarterly Comparison

Here’s a look at how each segment performed in March:

The Top Jobs In Each County For January:

Quarter to Quarter Consumption Rate Rockets To 61.38%

Trustee Deed filings throughout the first quarter stayed at levels we have never seen before. We’ve heard that the cause in the increase in foreclosures may have been from failed modifications from 2009 or perhaps banks stocking as many houses on the market as possible in the waning days of the tax credit. Over the last two years this number has hovered between 43-53%. This was a dramatic jump and the highest level during this time period.

It is very possible that new notice filings may slow down in the next few months as banks adjust their strategy. The tax credit expiring will probably prove to be a very good thing for homeowners facing foreclosure. anks may face longer days on the market and possible price drops after the credit expires, thus modifications may prove to be the better route after all. During this period of adjustment it is possible that both new foreclosure filings and trustee deed filings may drop.

Overall monthly comparison:

Overall quarterly comparison:

Monthly Breakdown (March 2010):

Source: Ion Data Express, Publishers of Home Sales, Building and Foreclosure Reports. Toll-free phone: 877-466-5478