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Real Estate Market Update: April 2010

Surprisingly, with the home buyer tax credit officially expiring, sales actually dipped slightly in Pima and Pinal counties but still stayed at extremely high levels in the three county area. Overall, sales posted a 4.14% gain over March led by Maricopa County. Permits in April sagged across the board but overall numbers are being propped up by the pool season which is now in full force. And lastly, foreclosures fell a combined 12.81% in the area. The real barometer of where the markets are heading will be the numbers we see coming in throughout the summer.

Sales Remain At Extremely High Levels As Tax Credit Expires

Sales in the three county area reported the highest sales totals since June of 2009 with buyers who were in position to close early did so to take advantage of the tax credit. April recordings totaled 12,617 sales in the three county area posting an overall gain of 4.14% over March. It was concluded that the second round of the homebuyer tax credit did not have the same effects and was terminated in April. However, we feel most players in the market would have preferred it stayed around. In fact, according to Robert Schiller of Case-Schiller — “The credit interferes with the market in an arbitrary way, but ending it now would be psychologically powerful. People will be in a bad mood about buying a house.” He advocated phasing it out gradually to avoid turning buyer sentiment. So far in May, the market is tracking to a 20% drop in sales volume which isn’t entirely unexpected.

Here is a look at how the markets are doing in your area:

Overall monthly comparison:

Total Property Sales
County	March 10	April 10	MOM % +/-	YOY % +/-
Maricopa	9,116	9,650	5.86%	14.00%
Pima	1,610	1,596	-0.87%	21.28%
Pinal	1,390	1,371	-1.37%	6.44%

Monthly Breakdown (April 2010):

	Maricopa County	Pima County	Pinal County
Single Family Homes	8,214	1,324	1,201
Condo/Townhomes	832	113	9
Mobile Homes	80	39	39
2-4 Plex	47	11	2
Apartments	25	0	2
Commercial/Industrial	142	25	9
Agriculture	3	0	2
Vacant Land	291	80	91
Other	16	4	11
Totals:	9,650 Sales	1,596 Sales	1,371 Sales

Top Zip Codes For Sales:

County	Highest Number of Sales		Zip Code With Highest Sale Price
Maricopa	85326 (Buckeye)	218 Sales	85255 (Scottsdale)	112 Sales
Pima	85614 (Green Valley)	111 Sales	85718 (Tucson)	31 Sales
Pinal	85143 (San Tan Valley)	176 Sales	85118 (San Tan Valley)	10 Sales

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Permitting Unexpectedly Dips Heading Towards Summer

New home permits in the three county area reported their lowest level of volume in over a year with builders perhaps looking to an uncertain summer and cautious view of speculative inventory on the books. This led to a dramatic drop in overall permitting activity, falling a combined 9.78%. However, pool building season appears to be in full force which propped up overall totals in the area. An analysis of the previous three years indicates this was unexpected with April typically turning in double digit increases leading into the summer.

Overall monthly comparison:

Building Permits
County	March 10	April 10	MOM %+/-	YOY % +/-
Maricopa	1,598	1,447	-9.45%	-3.02%
Pima	498	461	-7.43%	20.37%
Pinal	245	205	-16.73%	-28.42%

Here’s a look at how each segment performed in April:

County	Custom Homes	New Homes	Residential Permits	Commercial Permits	Pool Permits
Maricopa	32	415	395	251	354
Pima	18	152	152	91	48
Pinal	4	115	18	15	52

The Top Jobs In Each County For April:

County	Job Description	Permit Value	Permit Date
Maricopa	Musil Custom Home Scottsdale, AZ	$1,285,482	4/15/2010
	New Cafe Bakery Phoenix, AZ	$19,100,000	4/16/2010
Pima	Merens Custom Home Oro Valley, AZ	$850,000	4/02/2010
	New Marana Heatlh Center Marana, AZ	$10,843,784	4/22/2010
Pinal	Nevitt Custom Home San Tan Valley, AZ	$303,585	4/12/2010
	New Wood-McCaslin Building Casa Grande, AZ	$1,600,000	4/28/2010

If you would like detailed information about our weekly building permit report, click here to find out more about the Hot Sheet Building Permit Report.

New Foreclosure Filings Fall A Combined 12.8%

As we expected, following the extremely high levels of foreclosure activity in the first quarter, initial preforeclosure filings in the region dipped a combined 12.81%. Again, though this is good news, one month of good news does not qualify as the start of a sustainable trend. What will be more telling is the level of activity we see during the summer after the “tax credit hangover” is sufficiently behind us.

Overall monthly comparison:

Foreclosure Filings
Type	March 10	April 10	MOM % +/-	YOY % +/-
Maricopa	8,016	7,057	-11.96%	-22.28%
Pima	1,079	891	-17.42%	-18.48%
Pinal	987	842	-14.69%	-30.81%
*Notice of Trustee Sales

Monthly Breakdown (April 2010):

	Maricopa County	Pima County	Pinal County
Single Family Homes	5,666	703	746
Condo/Townhomes	939	73	14
Mobile Homes	107	60	7
2-4 Plex	88	16	0
Apartments	21	3	0
Commercial/Industrial	91	15	1
Agriculture	4	0	4
Vacant Land	138	21	30
Other	3	0	0
Totals:	7,057 Notices	891 Notices	842 Notices

Source: Ion Data Express, Publishers of Home Sales, Building and Foreclosure Reports. Toll-free phone: 877-466-5478